An RSI Understanding Risk method
Predictive modeling
Predictive modeling is one of the methods used by Risk Sciences International to better understand risk.
Broadly
Predictive modeling uses historical data and statistical algorithms to forecast future events or outcomes. In risk contexts, it can project disease spread, incident rates, or economic loss. Success depends on data quality, model selection, and the ability to generalize beyond observed patterns. Overfitting and interpretability are key challenges.
More specifically
RSI uses predictive modeling in public health forecasting, emergency preparedness, and scenario planning. It combines machine learning, regression models, and simulation approaches tailored to each risk domain. RSI emphasizes not only accuracy but explainability, ensuring that decision-makers can trust and act on the forecasts provided.