An RSI Understanding Risk method
Catastrophic event modeling
Catastrophic event modeling is one of the methods used by Risk Sciences International to better understand risk.
Broadly
Catastrophic event modeling aims to estimate the probability, scale, and consequence of rare but high-impact events, such as pandemics, industrial disasters, or natural catastrophes. These models often rely on probabilistic techniques, scenario analysis, and historical event reconstruction. While immensely valuable for preparedness and insurance planning, such models face challenges with data scarcity, fat-tail distributions, and uncertainty propagation. Their usefulness depends on both technical accuracy and the clarity with which limitations are communicated.
More specifically
RSI applies catastrophic event modeling in the context of risk foresight, emergency planning, and public policy design. Its teams use stochastic models, Monte Carlo simulations, and expert elicitation to project event scenarios and assess resilience gaps. RSI ensures that outputs are policy-relevant and accompanied by realistic sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. These efforts support clients in preparing for events where the stakes are high but the probabilities are elusive.