An RSI Understanding Risk method
Modeling of rare events
Modeling of rare events is one of the methods used by Risk Sciences International to better understand risk.
Broadly
Modeling rare events involves estimating the frequency and consequences of low-probability, high-impact scenarios. Examples include pandemics, nuclear accidents, or cyber-attacks. Techniques include extreme value theory, Bayesian inference, and scenario simulation. Challenges include data sparsity, epistemic uncertainty, and the tendency to either under- or overstate tail risks.
More specifically
RSI supports rare event modeling through structured scenario development and probabilistic modeling. Its interdisciplinary team helps clients quantify uncertainty, stress-test assumptions, and prepare for high-consequence possibilities. RSI presents rare event outputs with clear framing, enabling proactive planning without overstating precision.