Publication related to RSI or an RSI staff member
A value of information framework for assessing the trade-offs associated with uncertainty, duration, and cost of chemical toxicity testing.
A number of investigators have explored the use of value of information (VOI) analysis to evaluate alternative information collection procedures in diverse decision-making contexts. This paper presents an analytic framework for determining the value of toxicity information used in risk-based decision making. The framework is specifically designed to explore the trade-offs between cost, timeliness, and uncertainty reduction associated with different toxicity-testing methodologies. The use of the proposed framework is demonstrated by two illustrative applications which, although based on simplified assumptions, show the insights that can be obtained through the use of VOI analysis. Specifically, these results suggest that timeliness of information collection has a significant impact on estimates of the VOI of chemical toxicity tests, even in the presence of smaller reductions in uncertainty. The framework introduces the concept of the expected value of delayed sample information, as an extension to the usual expected value of sample information, to accommodate the reductions in value resulting from delayed decision making. Our analysis also suggests that lower cost and higher throughput testing also may be beneficial in terms of public health benefits by increasing the number of substances that can be evaluated within a given budget. When the relative value is expressed in terms of return-on-investment per testing strategy, the differences can be substantial.
Authors
- Hagiwara, Shintaro, Hagiwara S, Risk Sciences International, Ottawa, Canada.; School of Mathematics and Statistics, Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada.
- Paoli, Greg M, Paoli GM, Risk Sciences International, Ottawa, Canada.
- Price, Paul S, Price PS, Center for Compuational Toxicology and Exposure, Office of Research and Development, US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA.
- Gwinn, Maureen R, Gwinn MR, Office of Research and Development, US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA.
- Guiseppi-Elie, Annette, Guiseppi-Elie A, Center for Compuational Toxicology and Exposure, Office of Research and Development, US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA.
- Farrell, Patrick J, Farrell PJ, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada.
- Hubbell, Bryan J, Hubbell BJ, Air, Climate, and Energy Research Program, Office of Research and Development, US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA.
- Krewski, Daniel, Krewski D, Risk Sciences International, Ottawa, Canada.; McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada.
- Thomas, Russell S, Thomas RS, Center for Compuational Toxicology and Exposure, Office of Research and Development, US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA.
A number of investigators have explored the use of value of information (VOI) analysis to evaluate alternative information collection procedures in diverse decision-making contexts. This paper presents an analytic framework for determining the value of toxicity information used in risk-based decision making. The framework is specifically designed to explore the trade-offs between cost, timeliness, and uncertainty reduction associated with different toxicity-testing methodologies. The use of the proposed framework is demonstrated by two illustrative applications which, although based on simplified assumptions, show the insights that can be obtained through the use of VOI analysis. Specifically, these results suggest that timeliness of information collection has a significant impact on estimates of the VOI of chemical toxicity tests, even in the presence of smaller reductions in uncertainty. The framework introduces the concept of the expected value of delayed sample information, as an extension to the usual expected value of sample information, to accommodate the reductions in value resulting from delayed decision making. Our analysis also suggests that lower cost and higher throughput testing also may be beneficial in terms of public health benefits by increasing the number of substances that can be evaluated within a given budget. When the relative value is expressed in terms of return-on-investment per testing strategy, the differences can be substantial.
