RSI Expert-Shintaro Hagiwara

Shintaro Hagiwara

Risk Analyst, Statistician

PhD, MSc

Joined RSI in 2018

Personal introduction

I completed my B.Math, M.Sc, and Ph.D in Statistics at Carleton University under the supervision of Dr. Krewski and Dr. Farrell. My master’s thesis focused on the development of an optimal design for signal-to-noise crossover dose (SNCD) – a point of departure that can be reliably differentiated from experimental errors – and studying the efficacy of various sub-optimal designs. My PhD dissertation focused on two topics: (1) the development of an optimal design for quantitative high-throughput screening (qHTS) processes; and (2) the development of a value-of-information (VOI) framework to be used under regulatory decision-making contexts. The development of optimal design for the qHTS assays is an important extension to my master’s thesis as there is an increased interest in moving away from animal toxicity testing. The VOI framework allows a formal comparison amongst various toxicity testing strategies, comparing the amount of uncertainty reduction, timeliness, and direct costs associated with the toxicity tests. The novel contribution of this framework is the explicit incorporation of time-dimension, which plays a key role in determining the benefits and disbenefits accrued over time.

During my education, I also worked for the university as a teaching assistant, research assistant, as well as a statistical consultant at the Carleton’s Centre for Quantitative Analysis and Decision Support (CQADS). Through these experiences I developed foundational skills in effective communication with both clients and students. I enjoy applying my statistical expertise to help provide practical solutions to various clients.

Current Focus

Shintaro started working with Risk Sciences International as a student in 2018, and officially joined full-time in 2023. Shintaro focuses on the application of the VOI framework and developing health-based guideline values via dose-response analysis for chemicals of interest.


Peer-reviewed papers

  • Hagiwara S, Paoli GM, Price PS, Gwinn MR, Guiseppi-Elie A, Farrell PJ, Hubbell BJ, Krewski D, & Thomas RS. (2023). A value of information framework for assessing the trade-offs associated with uncertainty, duration, and cost of chemical toxicity testing. Risk Analysis 43(3):498-515.
  • Price PS, Hubbell BJ, Hagiwara S, Paoli GM, Krewski D, Guiseppi-Elie A, Gwinn MR, Adkins NL, & Thomas RS. (2021). A framework that considers the impacts of time, cost, and uncertainty in the determination of the cost effectiveness of toxicity-testing methodologies. Risk Analysis 42(4):707-729.

Selected Technical Reports

  • Inhaled Arsenic POD Analysis – Sensitivity Analysis on Bias from Unmeasured Smoking. Report prepared for Health Canada. 2023.
  • Arsenic-Induced Lung Cancer Mode of Action Analysis and Point of Departure Derivation. Report prepared for Health Canada. 2023
  • Arsenic Review and Dose-response Modelling. Report prepared for Health Canada. 2022.
  • Point of departure Recommendations for Inorganic Arsenic in Ambient Air. Report prepared for Health Canada. 2022.
  • Critical Review of Potential Adverse Health Effects of Fluoride in Drinking Water. Report prepared for Health Canada. 2021.
  • Effects of Timeliness, Uncertainty Reduction, and Throughput of Information Collection Procedures. Report prepared for U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2020.
  • Literature Review on Value of Information. Report prepared for U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2019.
  • Literature Review on HTP Exposure Models. Report prepared for Health Canada. 2018.
  • An Evaluation of FINA’s Synchronized Swimming Scoring System Using Stochastic Simulations. Report prepared for Synchro Canada. 2016.
  • Failure Analysis Simulation Model for APMRD-II. Report prepared for Nuclear Waste Management Organization. 2016.
  • Analysis of the OPFFA’s Sick Leave and Training Hours Data. Report prepared for Ottawa Professional Firefighters Association. 2015.
  • Evaluation of CAZA’s Accreditation Scoring Procedure. Report prepared for Canada’s Accredited Zoo and Aquariums. 2014.
  • Covariance Analysis of Irritable Bowel Syndrome Study II. Report prepared for Canadian College of naturopathic Medicine. 2014.
  • Covariance Analysis of Irritable Bowel Syndrome Study. Report prepared for Canadian College of naturopathic Medicine. 2013.

Selected Presentations

  • Artificial Neural Networks (2018)
  • Naïve Bayes Classification (2016)

Shintaro Hagiwara presenting at a Data Science Workshop at Carleton University (2017)

Shintaro's Extra-curricular

Shintaro (far left) with the Carleton University Competitive Tennis Team (2018).

Outside of work hours, you will most likely find Shintaro on the tennis court. He has been in love with the game of tennis since he was 7. While he enjoys competing, he also enjoys playing with younger generations and helping them develop. Shintaro served as a co-president at Carleton’s competitive tennis team from 2018 to 2019, while also competing as a player. He was also the vice-president of DARA Tennis Club in Ottawa between 2018 to 2020.

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