Publication related to RSI or an RSI staff member
Analysis of intervention effectiveness using early outbreak transmission dynamics to guide future pandemic management and decision-making in Kuwait.
Authors
- Tyshenko, Michael G, Tyshenko MG, McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, K1N 6N5, Canada.
- Oraby, Tamer, Oraby T, School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Edinburg, TX, 78539, USA.
- Longenecker, Joseph, Longenecker J, Faculty of Public Health, University of Kuwait, Kuwait.
- Vainio, Harri, Vainio H, Faculty of Public Health, University of Kuwait, Kuwait.
- Gasana, Janvier, Gasana J, Faculty of Public Health, University of Kuwait, Kuwait.
- Alali, Walid Q, Alali WQ, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Faculty of Public Health, University of Kuwait, Safat, 13110, Kuwait.
- AlSeaidan, Mohammad, AlSeaidan M, Department of Occupational Health, Ministry of Health, Kuwait.
- ElSaadany, Susie, ElSaadany S, Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, K1H 8M5, Canada.
- Al-Zoughool, Mustafa, Al-Zoughool M, Faculty of Public Health, University of Kuwait, Kuwait.
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a World Health Organization designated pandemic that can result in severe symptoms and death that disproportionately affects older patients or those with comorbidities. Kuwait reported its first imported cases of COVID-19 on February 24, 2020. Analysis of data from the first three months of community transmission of the COVID-19 outbreak in Kuwait can provide important guidance for decision-making when dealing with future SARS-CoV-2 epidemic wave management. The analysis of intervention scenarios can help to evaluate the possible impacts of various outbreak control measures going forward which aim to reduce the effective reproduction number during the initial outbreak wave. Herein we use a modified susceptible-exposed-asymptomatic-infectious-removed (SEAIR) transmission model to estimate the outbreak dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Kuwait. We fit case data from the first 96 days in the model to estimate the effective reproduction number and used Google mobility data to refine community contact matrices. The SEAIR modelled scenarios allow for the analysis of various interventions to determine their effectiveness. The model can help inform future pandemic wave management, not only in Kuwait but for other countries as well.
