Food Inspection Scientific Analysis & Risk Modelling

In support of ongoing efforts to modernize Canada's food inspection system, a request was issued for scientific and analytical expertise to enhance two critical risk-based decision tools: the Establishment-based Risk Assessment (ERA) and Importer Risk Assessment (IRA) models. These models are used to allocate inspection resources across food establishments, importers, hatcheries, feed mills, and renderers in a structured and scientifically defensible manner.

The work focused on adapting the ERA model to incorporate chemical hazards alongside existing microbiological components, with the goal of improving predictive accuracy and oversight effectiveness. Specific tasks included assessing chemical exposure through hazard quotients, estimating health consequences, conducting literature reviews, and proposing a framework to translate incidence into human health risk.

Additionally, the project involved development of the Work Tasking Logic Model (WTLM), an algorithm designed to integrate real-time risk intelligence from ERA-Food into dynamic work planning systems. This model supports timely scheduling of inspection activities based on risk levels, helping optimize the allocation of inspection personnel and respond adaptively to emerging risks.