Publication related to RSI or an RSI staff member
Using a stochastic continuous-time Markov chain model to examine alternative timing and duration of the COVID-19 lockdown in Kuwait: what can be done now?
Authors
- Al-Zoughool, Mustafa, Al-Zoughool M, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Faculty of Public Health, University of Kuwait, Kuwait City, Kuwait. mustafa.alzoughool@ku.edu.kw.
- Oraby, Tamer, Oraby T, School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Edinburg, TX, 78539, USA.
- Vainio, Harri, Vainio H, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Faculty of Public Health, University of Kuwait, Kuwait City, Kuwait.
- Gasana, Janvier, Gasana J, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Faculty of Public Health, University of Kuwait, Kuwait City, Kuwait.
- Longenecker, Joseph, Longenecker J, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Faculty of Public Health, University of Kuwait, Kuwait City, Kuwait.
- Al Ali, Walid, Al Ali W, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Faculty of Public Health, University of Kuwait, 13110, Safat, Kuwait.
- AlSeaidan, Mohammad, AlSeaidan M, Department of Occupational Health, Ministry of Health, Kuwait City, Kuwait.
- Elsaadany, Susie, Elsaadany S, Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, K1H 8M5, Canada.
- Tyshenko, Michael G, Tyshenko MG, McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, K1N 6N5, Canada.
YEAR OF PUBLICATION: 2022
SOURCE: Arch Public Health. 2022 Jan 8;80(1):22. doi: 10.1186/s13690-021-00778-y.
JOURNAL TITLE ABBREVIATION: Arch Public Health
JOURNAL TITLE: Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique
ISSN: 0778-7367 (Print) 2049-3258 (Electronic) 0778-7367 (Linking)
VOLUME: 80
ISSUE: 1
PAGES: 22
PLACE OF PUBLICATION: England
ABSTRACT:
BACKGROUND: Kuwait had its first COVID-19 in late February, and until October 6, 2020 it recorded 108,268 cases and 632 deaths. Despite implementing one of the strictest control measures-including a three-week complete lockdown, there was no sign of a declining epidemic curve. The objective of the current analyses is to determine, hypothetically, the optimal timing and duration of a full lockdown in Kuwait that would result in controlling new infections and lead to a substantial reduction in case hospitalizations. METHODS: The analysis was conducted using a stochastic Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC), eight state model that depicts the disease transmission and spread of SARS-CoV 2. Transmission of infection occurs between individuals through social contacts at home, in schools, at work, and during other communal activities. RESULTS: The model shows that a lockdown 10 days before the epidemic peak for 90 days is optimal but a more realistic duration of 45 days can achieve about a 45% reduction in both new infections and case hospitalizations. CONCLUSIONS: In the view of the forthcoming waves of the COVID19 pandemic anticipated in Kuwait using a correctly-timed and sufficiently long lockdown represents a workable management strategy that encompasses the most stringent form of social distancing with the ability to significantly reduce transmissions and hospitalizations.
BACKGROUND: Kuwait had its first COVID-19 in late February, and until October 6, 2020 it recorded 108,268 cases and 632 deaths. Despite implementing one of the strictest control measures-including a three-week complete lockdown, there was no sign of a declining epidemic curve. The objective of the current analyses is to determine, hypothetically, the optimal timing and duration of a full lockdown in Kuwait that would result in controlling new infections and lead to a substantial reduction in case hospitalizations. METHODS: The analysis was conducted using a stochastic Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC), eight state model that depicts the disease transmission and spread of SARS-CoV 2. Transmission of infection occurs between individuals through social contacts at home, in schools, at work, and during other communal activities. RESULTS: The model shows that a lockdown 10 days before the epidemic peak for 90 days is optimal but a more realistic duration of 45 days can achieve about a 45% reduction in both new infections and case hospitalizations. CONCLUSIONS: In the view of the forthcoming waves of the COVID19 pandemic anticipated in Kuwait using a correctly-timed and sufficiently long lockdown represents a workable management strategy that encompasses the most stringent form of social distancing with the ability to significantly reduce transmissions and hospitalizations.
COPYRIGHT INFORMATION: (c) 2021. The Author(s).
LANGUAGE: eng
DATE OF PUBLICATION: 2022 Jan 8
DATE OF ELECTRONIC PUBLICATION: 20220108
DATE REVISED: 20220113
MESH DATE: 2022/01/10 06:01
EDAT: 2022/01/10 06:00
STATUS: PubMed-not-MEDLINE
PUBLICATION STATUS: epublish
LOCATION IDENTIFIER: 10.1186/s13690-021-00778-y [doi] 22
OWNER: NLM
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Senior Health Risk Analyst
Dr. Michael G. Tyshenko is a Senior Health Risk Analyst at Risk Sciences International (RSI), where he has contributed since 2018 to the organization’s most complex and cross-cutting public health risk issues. As RSI’s lead on chemical peer reviews, he...
Dr. Al-Zoughool has had a long-standing relationship with Risk Sciences International, both as a scientific collaborator and co-investigator on complex international projects. His work with RSI focuses on high-level public health risk modeling, methodological innovation, and the development of evidence-based...