Publication related to RSI or an RSI staff member
Expert elicitation on the uncertainties associated with chronic wasting disease.
A high degree of uncertainty exists for chronic wasting disease (CWD) transmission factors in farmed and wild cervids. Evaluating the factors is important as it helps to inform future risk management strategies. Expert opinion is often used to assist decision making in a number of health, science, and technology domains where data may be sparse or missing. Using the “Classical Model” of elicitation, a group of experts was asked to estimate the most likely values for several risk factors affecting CWD transmission. The formalized expert elicitation helped structure the issues and hence provide a rational basis for estimating some transmission risk factors for which evidence is lacking. Considered judgments regarding environmental transmission, latency of CWD transmission, management, and species barrier were provided by the experts. Uncertainties for many items were determined to be large, highlighting areas requiring more research. The elicited values may be used as surrogate values until research evidence becomes available.
Authors
- Tyshenko, Michael G, Tyshenko MG, a McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment , Institute of Population Health, University of Ottawa , Ottawa , Ontario , Canada.
- Oraby, Tamer, Oraby T, b Department of Mathematics , University of Texas-Pan American , Edinburg , Texas , USA.
- Darshan, Shalu, Darshan S, a McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment , Institute of Population Health, University of Ottawa , Ottawa , Ontario , Canada.
- Westphal, Margit, Westphal M, a McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment , Institute of Population Health, University of Ottawa , Ottawa , Ontario , Canada.
- Croteau, Maxine C, Croteau MC, a McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment , Institute of Population Health, University of Ottawa , Ottawa , Ontario , Canada.
- Aspinall, Willy, Aspinall W, c Aspinall and Associates , Tisbury , United Kingdom.; d School of Earth Sciences and Cabot Institute , University of Bristol , Bristol , United Kingdom.
- Elsaadany, Susie, Elsaadany S, e Professional Guidelines and Public Health Practice Division, Centre for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control , Public Health Agency of Canada , Ottawa , Ontario , Canada.
- Krewski, Daniel, Krewski D, a McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment , Institute of Population Health, University of Ottawa , Ottawa , Ontario , Canada.; f Department of Epidemiology and Community Medicine , University of Ottawa , Ottawa , Ontario , Canada.
- Cashman, Neil, Cashman N, g Brain Research Centre , University of British Columbia , Vancouver , British Columbia , Canada.
A high degree of uncertainty exists for chronic wasting disease (CWD) transmission factors in farmed and wild cervids. Evaluating the factors is important as it helps to inform future risk management strategies. Expert opinion is often used to assist decision making in a number of health, science, and technology domains where data may be sparse or missing. Using the "Classical Model" of elicitation, a group of experts was asked to estimate the most likely values for several risk factors affecting CWD transmission. The formalized expert elicitation helped structure the issues and hence provide a rational basis for estimating some transmission risk factors for which evidence is lacking. Considered judgments regarding environmental transmission, latency of CWD transmission, management, and species barrier were provided by the experts. Uncertainties for many items were determined to be large, highlighting areas requiring more research. The elicited values may be used as surrogate values until research evidence becomes available.
